dudology ?

This tool calculates probabilities for bids in the game dudo

The cut feature refers to the ability to, rather than raising a bid, to change the bid value to 1 and cut the # of dice in half. For example, a current bid for 3 dice of 7 pipes can be followed by a bid of 2 dice of 1 pip.

uncut refers to the ability to, after the bids have been cut in a round, to undo the cut by raising the # of pips above 1 then doubling the # of dice and adding 1.

Bids can only be cut and uncut once per round.

The probability of a dudo bid is P where:

P = P'(X=2) + P'(X=3) ... up to n

where:
n is the number of total dice on the table
P' is the probability that the rolls will match the bid exactly

P'(X=r) = nCr · pʳ · (1-p)ⁿ⁻ʳ

where:
r is the number of dice bid
p is the probability of a successful roll
    (1/6 normally, 2/6 if 1’s are wild and the bid value (# of pips) is greater than 1
n is the number of total dice on the table
and nCr is n choose r, ie:

nCr = n! / [(n - r)! * r!]

Reference (see item 5)

All percentage probabilities are rounded to 2 decimal points.